LSN Weekly Federal Mobility Digest

December 3, 2024

Trump Administration Policies:
Department of Agriculture & Farm Bill Status

The incoming Trump administration is set to shape the landscape of U.S. agriculture with a suite of policy directions that could significantly influence the sector. President-elect Donald Trump has tapped Brooke Rollins, President of the America First Policy Institute, to serve as the Secretary of Agriculture. This choice suggests policies prioritizing the interests of traditional, large-scale farming operations. With her background in conservative policy think tanks and previous roles in the Trump administration, Rollins might steer the USDA towards reducing regulatory burdens, as was the case during Trump’s first term, where numerous deregulatory actions were taken to ease constraints on agricultural practices.

Trump Administration Policies: Department of Agriculture & Farm Bill Status

• Trade Policy and Tariffs: There is a potential revival of aggressive tariff strategies against countries like China, aiming to negotiate better trade deals for agriculture. While this approach seeks long-term benefits, it might again lead to short-term disruptions in export markets, necessitating government support for affected farmers, much like the billions in aid provided during Trump’s first term.
• Agricultural Subsidies and Support: The administration might continue distributing significant federal payments to farmers, particularly those impacted by trade disputes or natural disasters. However, there’s a concern about the equity of these payments, which often favor larger agribusinesses over smaller farms.
• Regulatory Changes: There’s an anticipation of further deregulation, especially concerning environmental regulations like the Waters of the United States (WOTUS) rule, which could ease operational constraints on farmers but at the potential cost of environmental conservation.
• SNAP and Food Assistance Programs: Moves might be made to alter SNAP by giving more control to states, potentially reducing federal oversight and varying state approaches to food assistance, which could influence the ongoing Farm Bill negotiations.
• Labor and Immigration: Stricter immigration policies could exacerbate labor shortages in agriculture, a sector heavily dependent on immigrant workers, impacting farm operations and harvests.

Farm Bill Status Update

The Farm Bill remains in limbo, with no new legislation passed by early December 2024. This leads to agricultural policy uncertainty, especially regarding crop insurance, conservation, and the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP). The urgency to conclude a new Farm Bill by the close of the 118th Congress or in the initial months of 2025 is palpable, aiming to bring stability to agricultural markets and offer a clear path forward for farmers. However, the political transition and existing dynamics suggest that another extension is more likely, delaying a comprehensive bill until at least mid-2025. Balancing the needs of diverse agricultural sectors, managing fiscal responsibility despite calls for spending cuts, and addressing labor shortages in light of immigration policy will be key. The political divide in Congress could further complicate these issues, potentially leading to a Farm Bill that reflects a conservative approach to federal spending and regulation but requires significant negotiation for bipartisan support. This Farm Bill will be critical in setting the tone for American agriculture for the next several years, influencing everything from food security and environmental policy to the economic viability of farming operations nationwide.